Academic Publications
"Financial Suicide: Debt and Death Across US Counties During the Great Recession" (with B. Unel) Economic Inquiry, forthcoming (2026) Link
Counties with the highest household debt exposure at the onset of the Great Recession saw the largest subsequent rise in suicide mortality, which we show using complete-count U.S. mortality data.
"The Labour Market Geography of Generative AI" (with F. Levy) Applied Economics Letters (2026), 1-6 Link
Using the first local measure of generative AI exposure across 255 U.S. metropolitan areas, we find the highest disruption risk in urban, educated, coastal regions and identify smaller cities like Chattanooga and Scranton as likely destinations for displaced workers. Abbreviated version of "From San Francisco to Savannah?" (working paper below).
"Gender Differences in Choosing Fast and Slow: Evidence from Competitive Powerlifting" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2026), 243, 107435 Link
Analyzing one million attempt choices in competitive powerlifting, I find that men overestimate their abilities at longer time horizons but update more effectively under extreme time pressure, suggesting a novel mechanism for gender gaps in high-stakes performance.
"Unequal Job Security, Unemployment Scarring, and the Distribution of Welfare in a Search and Bargaining Model" LABOUR (2025), 39(3): 189-205 Link
In an estimated structural model with heterogeneous layoff risk, I show that workers facing higher job insecurity bear amplified welfare losses from unemployment scarring.
"An Analysis of the Gender Layoff Gap Implied by a Gender Gap in Wage Bargaining" Economics Letters (2024), 234, 111505 Link
I show how a gender gap in wage bargaining should mechanically generate a reverse gender gap in layoff rates, with men facing higher risk, and provide supporting descriptive evidence.
"Downward Minimum Wage Rigidity: Evidence from a Temporary Four-Month Increase in St. Louis" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2024), 218, 30-47 Link
When Missouri pre-empted St. Louis's minimum wage increase in 2017, wages for the lowest earners did not fall back, implying downward wage rigidity following removal of a binding price floor.
"Commuting Barriers to Low-Wage Employment" (with J. Mabli) Regional Science and Urban Economics (2024), 104, 103970 Link
Using a structural search model, we quantify how commuting costs constrain employment for low-wage workers, showing that they explain much less of observed race and gender gaps than does variation in the job offers available.
"Officer Differences in Traffic Stops of Minority Drivers" Labour Economics (2020), 67, 101912 Link
Using detailed records on individual officers, I estimate the share of police officers with substantially higher propensities to stop minority drivers, isolating individual variation from patrol assignment.
"Disparities in Vulnerability to Complications from COVID-19 Arising from Disparities in Preexisting Conditions in the United States" (with E. E. Wiemers, M. AlFakhri, V. J. Hotz, R. F. Schoeni, and J. A. Seltzer) Research in Social Stratification and Mobility (2020), 69, 100553 Link
We document how baseline disparities in pre-existing health conditions translate into demographic differences in vulnerability to severe COVID-19 outcomes.
"Female Corporate Leadership in Latin America and the Caribbean Region: Representation and Firm-Level Outcomes" (with L. Flabbi and C. Piras) International Journal of Manpower (2017), 38(6), 790-818 Link
We document the representation of women in corporate leadership across Latin America and the Caribbean and show how it relates to firm-level performance.
Working Papers
Economic History and Long-Run Opportunity
"Riding to Opportunity: Geographic and Household Effects from the Orphan Trains" (with D. Keniston) NBER Working Paper #34282 (under review) Link
Tracking 200,000 "orphan train" children placed across the American West from 1854 to 1929, we find that neither relocation itself, destination county, nor assigned foster household predicted adult outcomes, though the communities individuals later chose to live in as adults did.
"The Labor Market Impact of K-11 vs. K-12" (with P. Ugalde A.) EdWorkingPaper 25-1306 (under review) Link Media: How a Gap Year in Graduates Revealed Value in Education (Research@Ourso, June 2025)
When several U.S. states extended high school from eleven to twelve grades, adjacent birth cohorts received different amounts of schooling under the same credential. We find that the extra year raised adult labor income by 5-8%, consistent with human capital accumulation rather than signaling.
AI and Labor Markets
"From San Francisco to Savannah? The Downstream Effects of Generative AI" (with F. Levy) SSRN Link An abbreviated version is published as "The Labour Market Geography of Generative AI."
Media: The Geography of GenAI (Moody's Inside Economics, May 2025); How A.I. Could Reshape the Economic Geography of America (New York Times, December 2024); Will AI take jobs away from Baton Rouge professionals? (Baton Rouge Business Report, January 2025); The Next Great Job Churn Is Already Starting (Bloomberg, May 2025); 生成式AI重塑的版圖 (自由時報, May 2025); The AI Job Suck Is the China Shock of Today (Bloomberg, May 2025).
We document the education, migration, and political response to the 1980s manufacturing shock and use it as an analogy to forecast labor market adjustments to uneven generative AI exposure.
Public Assistance and Labor Supply
"Labor Market Dynamics and Public Assistance Programs: Evidence from an Estimated Model of SNAP Participation" (with L. Flabbi and J. Mabli) IZA DP No. 18392 (under review) Link
In an estimated structural dynamic model of household labor supply and SNAP participation, we find that stringent work requirements would slash participation (from 10% to 2.3%) without raising employment, while higher benefits would actually improve labor market outcomes.
Institutional Environments
"Noncompete Agreements and Firm Competition: Lessons from Collegiate Athletics" (with L. Fesko) Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization Link
We use the 2021 liberalization of NCAA Division I transfer rules to estimate how relaxing noncompete-like restrictions reshapes competitive balance across teams and over time.
"Asymmetric Interest Rate Smoothing and Financial Development" (with I. Green and J. Kachovec) Working paper Link
Using a panel dataset of policy rates from 38 countries, we show that during easing cycles, central banks reach terminal rates more quickly than during tightening cycles, an asymmetry more pronounced in countries with higher financial stability risks.
"The Revival of U.S. Populism: How 39 Years of Manufacturing Losses and Educational Gains Reshaped the Electoral Map" (with F. Levy) SSRN Link Media: Can an Unpopular Populist Still Damage Democracy? (New York Times, October 2023)
We trace how four decades of manufacturing employment losses and rising educational attainment have reshaped the geography of U.S. political alignment.
Work in Progress
"Economic Resilience in the Storm’s Wake: Hurricane Impact on Business Dynamics and Local Market Structure" (with Q. Li, Z. Yu, and C. Yoon) Abstract
"Gridlock: Intergenerational Variation in Early Career Economic Opportunity" (with F. Levy)
"Occupational Task Complementarity and Substitution with Generative AI"
"Family Composition Dynamics and Consumption Allocation" (with A. Chanda)
"Assistant Principal Characteristics and Student Academic Outcomes" (with L. Fesko)
Research Reports
Youth Employment in Nepal (World Bank 2018)
Making Politics Work for Development: Harnessing Transparency and Citizen Engagement (World Bank 2016)
World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior (World Bank 2015)
Malaysia Economic Monitor: Immigrant Labour (World Bank 2015)